Over recent weeks, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab jihadist group has repeatedly clashed with Somali government forces in the Aad region of the central province of Galmudug. While the area has been under the control of government forces and loyalist militias since January 5, Al-Shabaab kept forces stationed near the city and transferred large quantities of materiel to the area, launching a surprise attack on January 25.
Government forces requested urgent reinforcements and logistical supplies from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), warning the city would fall unless more fighters were sent to fend off a reconstituted Al-Shabaab. ATMIS responded by sending some 100-150 recruits, armed with light and medium weaponry, who were stationed alongside government forces in Aad. This proved sufficient to repel another Al-Shabaab assault in early February.
The jihadist gorup has recently adopted a strategy of withdrawing without a fight from cities that the Somali government seizes. Then, once new government forces have deployed there, the group returns and launches surprise attacks, aimed at wearing down its enemy’s combat capabilities.
The strategy is not new, but Al-Shabaab has adopted it with unusual frequency in recent months. Realizing this, residents of Ceelbuur, a city of about 80,000 located in the Galguduud region) asked Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud not to redeploy government forces there after Al-Shabaab withdrew, recalling a massacre during the rule of President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (2009-2012), when Al-Shabaab fighters who had lost the city retook control of it and beheaded tribal leaders.
Al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the geographical nature of central Somalia (Galmudug and Hirshabelle states), which is characterized by jungles and wide plains, making it difficult for Somali forces and American or Turkish drones to locate the group’s fighters. Launching an attack against them is a near-impossible task, given the weak capabilities of government forces.
Al-Shabaab forces are exploiting those weaknesses, and Somali forces have proven unable to maintain control of areas they have seized in recent months. The militants have responded with pre-emptive strikes in strategically important locations, including Aad. This has further damaged public confidence in government forces, so much that local residents are now refusing to allow government forces to enter certain areas for fear of retaliation from Al-Shabaab were the group to retake control.
Given these factors, Al-Shabaab may be expected to seize back Aad, which would then give the group a foothold from which to expand into larger areas across Galmudug state.
