A sweeping offensive by the Malian army, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, has radically shifted the balance of power in the eastern region of Kidal and eroded the perennial influence of armed groups on the ground.
The intense military campaign has forced the Azawad fighters, linked to a 2012 uprising demanding an independent Tuareg state in northern Mali, to retreat from urban centers and exposed positions, seeking refuge in rugged mountainous areas and caves near the vast Sahel country’s borders with Algeria (north) and Mauritania (west).
This represents a shift in the battle, transforming it into a form of guerrilla warfare in complex terrain.
The government’s advance has relied primarily on air superiority, achieved through the extensive use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, successfully disrupting the armed groups’ supply and communication networks before ground forces move in.
Despite the territorial setback, this does not amount to the complete elimination of the Azawad fighters as battlefield actors. Rather, it is a tactical repositioning aimed at luring the Malian army into the trap of the mountains, where armored vehicles and drones will be less effective and Malian forces will be vulnerable to ambushes and attrition warfare.
The operation also presents Mauritania and Algeria with enormous security and humanitarian challenges. Having rebel fighters cornered along their borders increases the likelihood of cross-frontier military incursions and mass displacement.
Bamako’s success in controlling Kidal represents a symbolic victory for the state. Yet whether Mali can capitalize on it will depend on its ability to secure its borders and prevent armed groups from regrouping in rugged mountain hideouts. This could bring a protracted war of attrition to northern Mali, a burden for the army and its international partners.
