On May 15, Benin announced it was lifting a ban on Niger using its port to export oil, potentially ending a year-long dispute between the two West African countries. However, Benin’s Minister of Mines and Resources stressed that the authorization given to Niger to load oil there was “temporary”, and that Benin would continue to monitor Niger’s behavior as exports resumed via the Niger-Benin crude pipeline.
Origins of the Dispute
Following General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s coup against elected Nigerian President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had decided to impose sanctions on Niger’s new de facto rulers. These measures included closing all the borders of the bloc’s members with Niger. The junta in Niamey responded in kind, closing the borders from its own side. However, on February 25 ECOWAS decided to reopen the frontiers. Niger responded by refusing to reopen the crossing with Benin, citing threats to Niger’s national security.
Officials told the Center for African Security Studies that the crisis stemmed from efforts by France to persuade Benin to allow it to build five military bases near the border, in light of its many setbacks in the Sahel—France has been forced to withdraw its forces from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Benin has signed an agreement with the United Nations’ Mission in Mali, MINUSMA, to train Benin’s anti-terrorism special forces under French, Belgian and American supervision.
How did the Latest Crisis Play Out?
Having suspended authorization for exports of oil from Niger via its port following Tchiani’s coup and reaffirmed the ban in January, Benin opened the two countries’ shared border on May 6, but then blocked the first load of oil from heading for the Sèmè-Podji Port in southern Benin.
Officials said the ban came after French pressure on President Patrice Talon, but that the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)—which built the 1,930-kilometer Niger-Benin crude pipeline as part of its investments in Niger’s oil sector, had pressured the Beninese side to allow the shipment to cross. The oil was to be sent to China as payment for a $400 million commodity-backed loan agreement between Niger and the Chinese government-owned CNPC, set to last 12 months at an interest rate of 7%.
China is estimated to have investments worth $6 billion in Niger’s oil sector, and the development of the Agadem Complex has helped raise the country’s oil production from 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 110,000 bpd since 2011, of which over four fifths, 90,000 bpd, is for export.
Niger’s oil reserves are estimated at two trillion barrels. To exploit this huge reserve, the country would need to build oil refineries and other infrastructure. However, the prospect of seeing French military bases near its border, and Benin’s threat to shut down Nigerien oil exports via its territory pose major obstacles and investment risks. The situation has the potential to escalate into a security crisis between the two countries, especially if each side attempts to recruit jihadist groups near the border in order to sow chaos on its adversary’s territory.
It appears that at least for now, Benin has headed off such an eventuality, by bowing to Chinese pressure to wave through Niger’s oil exprots. It is likely that some 90,000 bpd will continue to head via Benin to China for 12 months. Beyond this, all bets are off as to whether the agreement will continue, or whether Benin succumb to French pressure to cancel it.
