On July 20, the Front for the Victory of Islam and Muslims (known by its Arabic acronym JNIM) attacked the Kpekakandi base, an army outpost in northern Togo near the border with Burkina Faso.
The attack, by the Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists’ so-called Hanifa Brigade, was part of a campaign to expand beyond their main stronghold in the Burkina Faso-Niger-Mali border region and deploy southwards into Togo.
The day after the operation, as the coastal state’s President Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé celebrated the traditional Evala wrestling festival, another jihadist attack hit an army patrol. This time, a group of fighters likely belonging to the Islamic State group carried out the operation, in a village in the northeastern province of Kpendjal. They reportedly killed at least 10 soldiers, a figure neither confirmed nor denied by Togolese authorities, which have kept their silence in public over the spread of jihadist groups in neighboring Burkina Faso. However, an analysis of leaked images of the attack suggest that the figure is credible.
Less than three weeks later, on August 11, JNIM attacked a Togolese army patrol in the northern region of Dapaong, killing two soldiers and kidnapping two more, while the rest of their comrades escaped.
These incidents are not random, but part of a pattern that could illustrate how jihadist groups are planning to expand their influence in Togo, a country they perceive as an easy target.
The History and Future of Jihadist Attacks on Togo
In November 2022, an JNIM detachment attacked a border crossing in northern Togo’s Kpendjal district, killing 17 Togolese soldiers. Government forces later announced that they had killed all of the jihadists. The following February, JNIM launched another assault on the same outpost, killing 31 civilians. The Togolese army responded with a wide-ranging manhunt, killing 13 suspected attackers. Meanwhile on Togo’s northeastern border with Benin, JNIM and IS jihadists have carried out three attacks since 2022.
These, and more recent operations, all suggest that the region is set to see an explosion of jihadist activity. While the attacks had taken place with relatively low regularity, three consecutive attacks in the space of less than a month over July and August suggest that more such operations are very likely to target northern Togo.
Moreover, sources with knowledge of the groups told the Center for African Security Studies that JNIM is close to concluding a deal to incorporate the Ansaru, another Al-Qaeda affiliate based in the northern and western states of Nigeria. Ansaru would become part of the Hanifa Brigade, which is deployed in the triangle including Burkina Faso, eastern Mali, and western Niger.
Such a development would mean that Togo and Benin are likely to be confronted with an escalation in attacks by both JNIM and IS, as each group seeks to expand its activities and networks in vulnerable areas near its main strongholds.
The implications of these attacks are limited to Togo’s domestic security. Rather, they are closely related to regional developments and a general flourishing of jihadist networks across West Africa.
What is Driving the Current Jihadist Surge?
Since April 2024, JNIM has been able to expand its armed presence in and around the so-called Liptako-Gourma triangle including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso—particularly the latter. Following this expansion and the resulting increase in financial and military resources, JNIM established the Hanifa Brigade, which took on the task of expanding to new areas stretching from southern Burkina Faso into western Niger.
JNIM has become increasingly active in the area around the Burkinabe capital, Ouagadougou, while JNIM and IS affiliate Wilayat Sahel, between them, have almost complete control over the borders of Niger and Mali. This has allowed the two groups to launch cross-border operations from both Burkina Faso and Nigeria into Togo and Benin. While these attacks were marginal events at first, their impact is growing exponentially.
Escalating attacks along Togo’s northern border with Burkina Faso also represent an existential danger for Togolese army bases in the region. JNIM’s capture of the Kpekakandi base was particularly notable for the speed at which the army withdrew, leaving behind dozens of rifles, medium machine guns and armored vehicles which were seized by the jihadists.
The incident therefore suggests that JNIM will begin to expand still further in northern Togo, building on the momentum of its victories against the Burkinabe army and exploiting the surplus firepower it has acquired. This could present it with the prospect of extending its influence as far as the southern coastline of West Africa.
